NFL 2005 Wild Card Predictions

The second season is upon us. I did pretty well with my picks in the regular season, finishing 165-91, an improvement over last year and good for 95% percentile in the Yahoo Pro Pick'em contest.

The Bears aren't playing this week, but what was Lovie Smith thinking by resting Rex Grossman. He has played six quarters this season, in fact only six quarters since late September 2004. I think he is rested. Grossman is easily the least experienced quarterback on his own team. What he desperately needed was playing time, especially if he is to bear a bigger burden of the offense than Orton did. I have a feeling that decision could end up biting Chicago next week.

In looking over the matchups this weekend, I am struck by the youth at quarterback. Simms, Manning, Leftwich, Roethlisberger, and Palmer are very early in their careers, all from the 2003 and 2004 draft classes. Even Tom Brady, for all his success and fame, is only in his sixth year.

But for now, onto this week...

Redskins @ Bucs
Both teams are known for their defenses, so this should be a fairly low scoring game. In fact, this is a pretty even matchup, with both teams strong on defense and run offense. The difference, then, is passing and the edge has to go to Washington. Simms has had a good year, and the quarterback situation in Tampa is as intriguing as ever with Simms vying with former starter Brian Griese for the starting gig. But he is yet another very young quarterback. In fact, the Bucs are very young at both QB and RB, whereas the Redskins have veterans at both key positions and both are playoff experienced as well. Prediction: Redskins.

Jaguars @ Patriots
New England has developed back into one of the more dangerous teams in the AFC. The running game is looking more like last year's, Brady's passing can be deadly, and the defensive front is up there with the best. The secondary is still not what it should be. But Jacksonville is not a deep passing team, and Leftwich hasn't played since November which will take away even more of the passing game. Jacksonville, despite a superb 12-4 record, is the worst team in the AFC playoffs. The record was earned playing a weak schedule, which does little to prepare the team for the accelerated pace of both good opposition and the playoffs. They did beat Seattle, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, but that was early in the season, before any of those teams started establishing themselves. Since then, they have faced a heavy dose of teams like Baltimore, Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona. I do not think they are ready for a big game against a very good opponent. Prediction: Patriots.

Panthers @ Giants
My pre-season pick to win the NFC has fallen to a wildcard spot. I've been dogging them for a while. They have no one to blame but themselves, repeatedly showing themselves unable to put away the division title when they had the chance. This looks to be a fairly even matchup. Both teams have good defense, good passing, and good running. I would give the Panthers the advantage in the first two, and obviously the Giants in the last with Tiki Barber. The Panther defense, with one of the top defensive lines, is built to handle a run-oriented offense like New York. Experience does matter and, though the Giants have some players left from the 2000 Super Bowl team, the Panthers are certainly the more experienced, particularly at quarterback with Super Bowl veteran Delhomme against second year man Manning, playing in his first playoff game. The combination of experience and defensive line will prove too much for New York. Prediction: Panthers.

Steelers @ Bengals
Last year, every wildcard game was a matchup of division rivals. This year, only this game is. The teams split the regular season games, each winning on the road. In the last game, the Steelers tried to go toe to toe with the high powered Bengal offense, and came up short. Big Ben threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns, but also three interceptions. This time, they will play Steeler ball, with a heavy dose of running backs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, against a poor run defense, and Roethlisberger will get back to his more customary 20 pass attempts. And the defense will attack more and do a better job against the Bengal running attack. Controlling the ball and the clock will keep Carson Palmer and company on the sidelines and off the scoreboard. Prediction: Steelers.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 0-0